Séminaire interne GREDEG - Sébastien Duchêne / Sandye Gloria-Palermo

Séminaire interne deux papiers
Quand ? Le 15-10-2015,
de 14:00 à 15:30
Où ? Salle Picasso
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Séminaire interne GREDEG

 

Jeudi 15 octobre 2015 

 

Sébastien Duchêne 


Quantum-like Models Cannot Account for the Conjunction Fallacy


Résumé : 

Human agents happen to judge that a conjunction of two terms is more probable than one of the terms, in contradiction with the rules of classical probabilities|this is the conjunction fallacy. One of the most discussed accounts of this fallacy is currently he quantum-like explanation, which relies on models exploiting the mathematics of quantum mechanics. The aim of this paper is to investigate the empirical adequacy of major such quantum-like models. We first argue that they can be tested in three different ways, in a question order effect configuration which is different from the traditional conjunction fallacy experiment. We then carry out our proposed experiment, with varied methodologies from experimental economics. The experimental results we get are at odds with the predictions of the quantum-like models. This strongly suggests that the quantum-like account of the conjunction fallacy fails. Future possible research paths are discussed.

 

Télécharger le working paper : ici


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Sandye Gloria-Palermo


Menger contre Walras

 

Télécharger le working paper : ici