Séminaire interne GREDEG - Pascal Seppecher / Adel Ben Youssef
Séminaire interne GREDEG
Jeudi 12 mai 2016
Is the Market Really a Good Teacher? Market Selection, Collective Adaptation and Financial Instability
Résumé : This paper proposes to model market mechanisms as a collective learning process for firms in a complex adaptive system, namely Jamel, an agent-based, stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model. Inspired by Alchian’s (1950) "blanketing shotgun process" idea, our learning model is an ever-adapting process that puts a significant weight on exploration vis-à-vis exploitation. We show that decentralized market selection allows firms to collectively adapt their overall debt strategies to the changes in the macroeconomic environment so that the system sustains itself, but at the cost of recurrent deep downturns. We conclude that, in complex evolving economies, market processes do not lead to the selection of optimal behaviors, as the characterization of successful behaviors itself constantly evolves as a result of the market conditions that these behaviors contribute to shape. Heterogeneity in behavior remains essential to adaptation in such an ever-changing environment. We come to an evolutionary characterization of a crisis, as the point where the evolution of the macroeconomic system becomes faster than the adaptation capabilities of the agents that populate it, and the so far selected performing behaviors suddenly cease to be, and become instead undesirable.
En collaboration avec Isabelle Salle et Dany Lang.
Télécharger le papier : ici
Adel Ben Youssef
Adoption of Cloud Computing in Emerging Countries: The Role of the Absorptive Capacity
Résumé : This paper aims at developing a theoretical framework that explains the decision of cloud computing (CC) adoption in Emergent Countries. It emphasizes the specific role of the technological absorptive capacity especially when the firm is seeking innovation by adopting CC. The absorptive capacity considered in this work is close to the work of Todorova and Durisin (2007) who proposed a framework linking both the contributions of Cohen and Levinthal (1989) and Zahra and Georges (2002). To test our theoretical claims, we estimated two models predicting the probability of adopting CC and adopting CC for innovative aims with (1) competitive pressure and external environment, (2) Technology perceived impacts, and (3) technological absorptive capacity of the firm. We use control variables such as size, sector of activity and seniority in order to control the general purposes of our claims. We use a bivariate probit model in order to understand the determinants of the decision of adoption and an ordered probit with sample selection in order to understand the determinant of adoption of CC for innovative aims. Based on a face-to-face questionnaire administered to a random sample of 350 Tunisian firms, and using a Heckman selection method. Our empirical findings confirm our theoretical claims and show that technology perception is key factor for CC adoption (for general purposes) and that the absorptive capacity is fundamental when the adoption of CC is for innovation goals. We found also that competition pressure is an important explanatory factor: the more competitors that adopt this technology, the more likely the firm adopt it.
En collaboration avec Walid Hadhri et Téja Maherzi
Télécharger le working paper : ici